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Free ToolUpdated April 23, 2026

Prop Challenge Pass Calculator

See your real odds of passing a funded challenge before you pay the fee. Enter your win rate, risk-reward, and risk per trade to get your probability of hitting the profit target before breaching drawdown.

Risking $500 per trade
Probability of passing
98%
Strong
Profit to pass
$7,500
10% + 5%
Loss before breach
$5,000
10% static drawdown
Expected trades to pass31
Edge per trade+$250
Monte Carlo over 1,500 runs, fixed-fractional risk against the static drawdown. A model, not a guarantee. Assumes the daily loss limit is not the binding constraint.
Take the CLASSIC 2-Step $50K challenge

How to use this calculator

01

Pick the challenge

Choose your account size and plan. The profit target and static drawdown for that challenge are applied automatically.

02

Enter your edge

Set your realistic win rate, your average risk-reward ratio, and how much you risk per trade. Be honest, optimistic inputs give optimistic odds.

03

Read your odds

See your probability of passing, the profit you need, the loss you can absorb, the expected number of trades, and whether your edge is positive.

What drives your pass rate

Edge per trade: Your win rate times your reward, minus your loss rate times your risk. If this is negative, no amount of discipline makes passing likely, you are relying on luck. Positive expectancy is the precondition for everything else.
Risk per trade: The single biggest lever you control. Lower risk means more losses are survivable before the drawdown breaches, which sharply raises your pass probability. This is why disciplined traders risk 0.5% to 1%.
Risk-reward ratio: A higher reward-to-risk lets each winner pay for more losers, so you can pass at a lower win rate. Improving risk-reward is often easier than improving win rate.
Profit target vs drawdown: Passing is a race between the profit target above you and the drawdown floor below you. Velotrade uses a static drawdown fixed from your starting balance, so the floor never moves against you, which is more forgiving than trailing models.

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Frequently asked questions

Common questions about pass probability, risk of ruin, win rate, and risk-reward.

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